On the surface, many investors and market observers feel that the Fed just recently began to tighten monetary policy with a rate hike in December of last year. However, by looking at the Wu-Xia shadow fed funds rate1, the tightening cycle has been underway for quite a bit longer – since mid-2014, in fact.
We’ve commented on the national economy as well as jobs across our country on several occasions over the past couple months. Today, however, we want to comment on the state of employment in, well, our own state: New Jersey. Just how far has the Garden State come in terms of recovering the number of jobs lost since the pre-recession peak in 2008? Very far, according to the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service (R/ECON). To illustrate how close, Nancy Mantell, the director of R/ECON, recently noted that NJ will match the previous high sometime in early 2017.
Between April and July of each year, the youth labor force (16-to-24-year-olds who are either working or actively looking for employment) grows. This should not come as a surprise, however, because summer break leads many more high school and college students to seek out and accept employment. Furthermore, graduation leads a large percentage of this demographic to find and attain permanent employment.
Gas-Powered Vehicle Owners & Dealers Left in the Dust
Yesterday, some details were released regarding Volkswagen’s settlement with diesel car owners and the federal government in regards to its diesel emissions scandal. In essence, Volkswagen is expected to either buy back the affected cars or fix the issues completely. These car owners will be fine, but what about the others who are associated with the brand?
With the market swoon to start the year, many investors wondered if we were finally due for a sustained slowdown in the economy or even a recession. After all, since 1926, recessions have happened once every five years on average and it has been over six-and-a-half years since the last one ended.
Well, positive economic growth has continued and the capital markets have actually made a sharp recovery since mid-February. So, does this make a recession even likelier now as more time has passed?
Manhattan has always been notorious for the superbly high rates of rent which tenants of the New York City borough have had to endure. While there is no indication that Manhattan will cease to exist as one of the most expensive places to rent in the country, for the first time in 24 months, average rent rates on a year-over-year basis actually fell in the borough. Based on a recent report by Douglas Elliman Real Estate, the median rental price has declined by nearly 3% to $3,300/month for Manhattan in March 2016 versus the same month last year and about 2.5% on a month-over-month basis.
The heightened volatility in the capital markets this year has been due, in part, to concerns surrounding the possibility of another recession. While some economic data, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are pointing to signs of an economic slowdown, there is one important number showing optimism that investors should keep an eye on: Continue reading “It’s All About the Jobs!”
Below, we share a letter sent to our clients with our thoughts on China, the recent market volatility, and our outlook:
Dear Valued Client,
Given the heightened market volatility in recent weeks, I wanted to take some time to provide our thoughts on recent market dynamics and our view going forward.