Condor Capital Management

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Our Thoughts on the Recent Market Weakness

Our Thoughts on the Recent Market Weakness

I wanted to take a minute to address the most recent bout of volatility in the market.  Before addressing the causes for the recent downturn and providing our thoughts, it’s important to remind investors of the benefits of having a diversified portfolio.  Different areas of the market will outperform at different times and it can be tempting to wonder, why bother holding asset classes that are not performing as well as others at any given time?  The reason is that changes in the market happen quickly, much more quickly than changes in the economy and much more often.  In fact, since 1980 the average annual intra-year drop for the S&P 500 is 13.8%, yet the Index has rebounded to finish the year positive in 29 of the 38 years analyzed and averaged an annual gain of 8.8%.

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Rising Interest Rates & the Market

Interest

Today’s relatively sharp market sell-off is generating a lot of discussion around the impact of rising interest rates on financial markets. Although there are legitimate concerns that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases could reduce demand for relatively riskier asset classes like stocks and slow the economy more than expected, it is our view that these concerns are outweighed by other, more positive factors. Our outlook is rooted in the continuing underlying corporate and economic strength domestically, as well as a longer-term contextual view of why interest rates are rising in the first place.

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Beware the Bears

Beware the Bears

If you’ve been paying attention to the financial news lately, you’re probably seeing a lot of ominous predictions—and they’re usually backed up by some ominous headline.  The most simplistic are saying that the bull market has now lasted ten years, so therefore it’s about to come to an end—as if bull markets come with a time limit.  Others, equally simplistic, are saying that the market has reached a new high, and, well, don’t markets fall from their all-time highs?  This ignores the fact that more than 70% of the time, a new high is followed by another new high—and ultimately, so far in history, every new high has eventually been surpassed by the next one.

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Turkey Contagion? Not So Fast…

Turkey Contagion? Not So Fast...

Front and center in the news lately is the concern over Turkey’s currency crisis, with the country’s lira falling against the dollar by as much as 20% in one day.  Last week’s downfall was led in part by President Trump’s doubling of tariffs on imported Turkish steel and aluminum along with continued heated rhetoric over an American pastor being held in the country.  Couple this with Turkey’s authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his brash tone toward international and domestic policies, and you can see the idiosyncratic factors that sent the lira tumbling.

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What to Make of the “Trade War”

Trade War

Last week, there was finally some evidence that the investment markets were starting to get jittery about the escalating tit-for-tat tariffs and threats of tariffs that some economists are calling “America vs. the World.”  Most investors are probably wondering whether new taxes on items flowing into and out of the U.S. really is something to worry about.

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Much Ado About…

Tariff

You may have heard about the “Trump Tariffs;” that is, the proposed 25% surtax on all steel imports coming into the U.S. from foreign manufacturers, and a similar 10% surtax on aluminum. The markets certainly noticed; they fell dramatically after the announcement, as investors feared that the move would spark a global trade war.

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What Will the Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction Mean for Markets?

At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would begin the process of winding down its balance sheet.  While the central bank is taking caution to chart a slow and gradual course, it marks a significant step in its plans to back away from quantitative easing and is likely to reverberate throughout financial markets as the unwinding progresses.

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